The United Nations Environment Programme’s 2026 Emissions Gap Report says the chance of holding warming to 1.5°C with no or only limited overshoot has passed under current national commitments. It calls for much faster emissions reductions to limit how high temperatures rise and how long they remain above the threshold.

The report does not say the 1.5°C threshold is permanently out of reach: its analysis describes a pathway to return to that level by the end of the century, but only after a period of overshoot and with urgent, sustained cuts and carbon removal. The assessment is a projection, not a forecast of any single year’s weather.

Sources: [UNEP — Emissions Gap Report 2026](wedocs.unep.org source ↗); [Associated Press — report’s findings and national emissions context](apnews.com source ↗); [UNEP — report overview](unep.org source ↗).